Risk Barometer68 PRE-CRISIS

Current Risks: Getting Better or Worse?

Trends are getting worse: 7 of 13 categories worsened, 0 improved; 4 are at High or above, one of them Severe.
Status as of November 12, 2026, 1:01 pm ET · Updates every 4 hours.
AI-generated report, published automatically with no human review. How it works
Flashpoint gauge: how close to critical mass
68
out of 100
PRE-CRISIS
Gauge history
History (daily, 9 am runs): Nov 6 67 · Nov 7 67 · Nov 8 67 · Nov 9 67 · Nov 10 67 (11 categories) · Nov 10, 9 pm 68 (13 categories from Nov 10, 9 pm) · Nov 11 68 · Nov 12 68 · now 68 (1:01 pm Nov 12) (→ no change from 68 at 9:01 am)
High or above
4 of 13
categories rated High or Severe
Tripwires met
1
(b) US strikes on Iran, limited form (Nov 2 to 3, and again Nov 6)
Flashpoints
1 in progress
0 rated Imminent or Close
Direction this run
7 worse
0 improved, 5 mixed, 1 no change
Household action (PRE-CRISIS)
Top off fuel, fill water containers, finish 90-day stocks, test generator and radios. Category 12 is High: keep masks, gloves and disinfectant stocked, and limit crowds.

What changed since the last report (9:01 am to 1:01 pm, Nov 12)

No ratings changed. The biggest new signal: Trump said "We don't need a deal with Iran" and pulled Vance off the talks, while Iran says four tankers are burning in and near Hormuz. Nvidia's CEO resigned. US envoys met Putin; Russia says a new three-way round and a 1,000-plus prisoner swap are coming.

ItemBeforeNowWhy
Gauge68 PRE-CRISIS68 PRE-CRISISNo severity changed; same tripwire count (30/52 = 58, + 10)
Category ratings (13)No severity or direction changedTrump's Iran remarks and the new tanker claims fit category 5's existing SEVERE/WORSE; Huang's resignation fits category 9's ELEVATED/WORSE (no bank stress or crash); the Kremlin meeting keeps category 6 MIXED (process moves, no ceasefire)
Flashpoints (10)No distance changedRenewed strikes on Iran stays In Progress (last confirmed US strike Nov 6); Trump's statement lowers the odds of a deal but announced no strike
Tripwires1 met (b)1 met (b)No new US or Israeli strike confirmed; (b) ages out about Nov 13 if none follows
Household actionUnchanged (PRE-CRISIS, plus category 12 add-on)Zone unchanged
New facts this run
Dropped or resolved
13 rated categories

Risk categories at a glance

7 WORSE0 IMPROVED5 MIXED1 NO CHANGE
#CategorySeverityDirectionLatest
1US domestic stability ELEVATED MIXEDTrump redirects Vance to "corruption" in Democratic cities; no executive-power red-line move.
2Homeland attacks and critical infrastructure ELEVATED WORSENo change since 9:01 am. Iranian plotting against officials; UK bases at FPCON Charlie.
3Military war preparation (US and allies) HIGH MIXEDNo change since 9:01 am. Israel's cabinet meets Sunday on Iran; no US mobilization.
4Government warnings to the public ELEVATED WORSENo change since 9:01 am. Gulf flight cuts; Baltic shelter alerts Nov 10 to 11.
5Middle East and Iran war SEVERE WORSETrump: "We don't need a deal with Iran"; Vance pulled off talks; Iran says four tankers ablaze.
6Russia vs Ukraine, NATO and Europe HIGH MIXEDEnvoys met Putin: new three-way round claimed; swap of 1,000+ per side per Russia.
7China and the Indo-Pacific ELEVATED WORSENo change since 9:01 am. Xi reunification pledge; 29-aircraft combat patrol.
8Nuclear risk ELEVATED MIXEDNo change since 9:01 am. No alert change or official nuclear threat; Iran rejects uranium transfer.
9Economic and financial stability ELEVATED WORSENvidia CEO Huang resigned; shares down over 11% premarket.
10Natural and systemic hazards GUARDED NO CHANGEGrid Normal (11:50 am); rain Thu night to Fri; space weather quiet.
11Other flashpoints ELEVATED WORSENo change since 9:01 am. Houthi missiles over Mecca region; Nasser Hospital strike.
12Biological threats HIGH WORSENo change since 9:01 am. Ebola PHEIC; about 11,000 DRC cases; no US case.
13Supply chain and essentials ELEVATED MIXEDNo change since 9:01 am. Heating oil about 70% above last year; crude easing.

Category details

Tap a category to open or close it. Categories that changed, have new facts, or are rated High or Severe start open.

1US domestic stabilityELEVATED MIXED
New since 9:01 am: Trump wrote on social media Nov 12 that Vice President Vance should give "his complete and total attention" to crime and corruption in Democratic-run cities, adding "CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership's blood!"; on Nov 11 Vance had blamed the Iran war for the midterm losses and called earlier advice to end it "sound advice" (Reuters via Yahoo; Washington Times). Rhetoric and a staff assignment only: no order, funding move or prosecution announced. No item on the executive-power worsening list.
Background: Democrats won both chambers by projection; Hyde-Smith conceded Mississippi to Scott Colom (Nov 11 to 12; CNBC, NPR); Alaska count Nov 18. White House Counsel Will Scharf warned incoming Oversight chair Robert Garcia that aggressive oversight "may cross the line into blatant criminality" (NYT). Trump asked Nov 9 whether the election was "honest" (CNBC); no lawsuit, order or certification challenge has followed. The House shelved Massie's Hegseth impeachment 211-204 (Nov 10). Reuters/Ipsos: 71% favor legislation to halt the Iran war. AG Blanche backs a DOJ inquiry into Democrats' impeachment threats (Axios). Key dates: Dec 11 funding deadline; Jan 3 new Congress. Direction MIXED: disputes settled by votes while election-doubt and "corruption" rhetoric continues.
Toward catastrophe
Results rejected, certification blocked, political violence, unappropriated spending, defiance of court orders, blanket subpoena refusal
Toward resolution
Results accepted and certified, disputes resolved in court and complied with, funding deal by Dec 11
2Homeland attacks and critical infrastructureELEVATED WORSE
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: No attack causing casualties on US soil and no new NTAS bulletin. Treasury Secretary Bessent moved onto a military base because Iranian plotting against officials had grown more advanced (NYT; Treasury confirmed). DOJ (Nov 10) indicted three alleged Iran-backed operatives over about 18 attacks in Europe, an attempted Manhattan synagogue bombing (March to April 2026) and an RAF Fairford plot (allegations). RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath at FPCON Charlie over an Iranian threat; tankers moved out (Reuters/WSJ, Bloomberg). A US soldier in the UK was arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia (BBC). CISA, FBI and partners warned Nov 5 of attacks on US cold-chain controllers; France blamed IRGC-linked hackers for sabotaging about 700 supermarkets' refrigeration; the Pentagon is probing commissary freezer failures at six or more bases (cause unconfirmed). Standing: AA26-097A, Volt Typhoon, Iran's "without geographical limitation" threat, NORAD Avenger air defenses at Mar-a-Lago. Space, cable and cloud checks: no US GPS or satellite disruption, major cable cut or large cloud outage found in the past 7 days; Russian GPS jamming over Europe is background.
Toward catastrophe
Attack on US soil or US bases abroad, cyber-caused outage, official US attribution of the commissary failures, new protective deployments
Toward resolution
FPCON lowered, bulletins downgraded, commissary probe finds no attack
3Military war preparation (US and allies)HIGH MIXED
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Nov 11 evening: Israel's security cabinet reportedly ordered the military to step up preparations for a possible Iran attack (KAN; single primary source); it meets Sunday. CENTCOM calls the blockade "ironclad". CENTCOM's roughly three-day campaign plan is reported finalized (NYT); Trump says the US is "locked and loaded" with another carrier in the region, but Reuters says he agreed to pause further strikes after Gulf appeals. Task Force Iron Gate extends the blockade to land and Caspian routes. US tankers relocated from RAF Mildenhall; two UK bases at FPCON Charlie. Standing: Pentagon FORTRESS (bases 90 days off-grid), Army mass temporary burial drills, UK 1,000-day readiness goal and Strategic Reserve recall to 65; POLITICO reports NATO weighing its biggest planning overhaul in decades. No US mobilization, reserve call-up or leave cancellation found.
Toward catastrophe
Mobilizations, reserve call-ups, leave cancelled, conscription, strike order
Toward resolution
Plans paused, carriers rotate out, forces stood down
4Government warnings to the publicELEVATED WORSE
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Etihad cancelled Abu Dhabi flights to Riyadh and Dammam through Nov 19; Emirates, flydubai and Air Arabia cancelled some Saudi services Nov 11 (Gulf News). Overnight Nov 10 to 11, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia told residents to shelter from drones entering from Russia or Belarus; NATO jets scrambled; alerts lifted hours later, no injuries; Finland briefly restricted the eastern Gulf of Finland (Reuters, LRT). US Missions UAE and Saudi Arabia warned of an "increased threat of armed attacks" (Nov 7); Saudi Civil Defence alerts (Nov 8); UK "Be Ready" campaign (Oct 23). Standing: non-emergency US staff ordered out of Saudi Arabia (Oct 30).
Toward catastrophe
US federal war warning, shelter or evacuation guidance, ordered departures widen
Toward resolution
Alerts lapse, airlines resume Gulf routes, no new warnings
5Middle East and Iran warSEVERE WORSE
New since 9:01 am: Trump (social media, Nov 12): "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed... We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" He redirected Vance, who had been weighing direct talks with Iran's SNSC secretary Rezaei, to domestic issues (Reuters via Yahoo; Washington Times; Jerusalem Post). Iran's armed forces said four tankers caught fire Nov 12: the two supertankers the IRGC Navy reported overnight after a "violent explosion" on a prohibited southern route, plus two east of the strait that the army says hit naval mines; no ships named, not independently verified; the US military has said all mines were cleared (AFP via Arab News). Gap check: Qatar's prime minister told G7 ministers Doha has secured "at least two weeks" for diplomacy to avert a new US strike (i24, single outlet). No new US or Israeli strike reported.
Background: Last confirmed US strikes: Qeshm air defenses Nov 2 to 3 and Nov 6 (AP); Reuters says Trump paused further strikes after Gulf appeals. Nov 12 morning: a merchant vessel hit by an unknown projectile 14 nm off Ras Al-Khaimah, fire, crew evacuated (Ambrey, single source); Iran rejected moving its 60% uranium abroad; Ghalibaf says Washington must "make and announce" a decision. Nov 11 to 12: Israel's security cabinet reportedly ordered stepped-up strike preparations (KAN), meets Sunday; Rezaei said any base used in a new US war "from West Asia to Europe" is a target. Nov 10 to 11: Iran attacked navigation systems on Oman's Didamar island (Reuters, three sources); four crew injured on MT Fujairah Energy; an ADNOC vessel damaged in UAE waters (WAM). The IMO counts 133 incidents and at least 25 seafarers killed since February; October's 37 ship attacks were the war's most. Blockade and Task Force Iron Gate continue. Brent near $92. Direction WORSE: the deal track has been downgraded by the President while Iran's tanker campaign widens.
Toward catastrophe
Full US or Israeli strike campaign, Iranian retaliation on US bases or Gulf energy, chemical use, Hormuz fully closed
Toward resolution
Interim deal signed, Hormuz reopening agreed, blockade eased, strikes stop for 7 days
6Russia vs Ukraine, NATO and EuropeHIGH MIXED
New since 9:01 am: Witkoff and Kushner met Putin in the Kremlin Nov 12 (ABC, Bloomberg). Per Russian state media, Witkoff said a new three-way round was agreed and Europeans would join; Russian negotiator Medinsky said Moscow sees no reason to meet Europeans. A Russian General Staff official said the prisoner swap will exceed 1,000 per side within two to three weeks; Putin proposed a joint humanitarian mission to Kostiantynivka and plans to raise Ukraine with Trump at APEC. No movement on territory, guarantees or a ceasefire (HNGN summary; details single-sourced to Russian accounts).
Background: Overnight into Nov 12 Russia fired ballistic and Zircon missiles and 123 drones at Ukraine; in Kyiv 1 killed and 5 injured (Ukrainian Air Force, Reuters). Abu Dhabi talks (Nov 10 to 11) ended with no deal but a prisoner swap agreed in principle (AP); Lavrov rejects an immediate ceasefire. The EU will sanction 150 entities and 50 banks Monday (Reuters). Zelensky says Starshield disruptions slowed drone interceptors (Reuters). Bomb threats hit about 6,300 Italian and 700-plus UK schools, no real danger (BBC, Reuters). Russia struck 11 Ukrainian power facilities Nov 10 to 11 (Reuters). Overnight Nov 10 to 11 drones entered Baltic airspace; shelter alerts, NATO jets scrambled (Reuters, LRT). Russian drones have hit at least 12 merchant ships in the Black Sea since October (CNN). Standing: Russia's Sept 30 Kaliningrad nuclear note; Danish and Czech warnings of a limited attack on NATO "within months". No strike on NATO territory.
Toward catastrophe
Strike on NATO territory, Article 4 or 5 invoked, cables cut, talks collapse
Toward resolution
Prisoner swap carried out, energy or Black Sea truce, ceasefire
7China and the Indo-PacificELEVATED WORSE
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Xi Jinping (Nov 12): "The complete reunification of the motherland must be realised, and it will certainly be realised"; Taiwan MND reported 29 aircraft on a "joint combat readiness patrol" with warships the same day; Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said the wording "isn't much different from the past" (Al Jazeera). G7 foreign ministers said China's actions east of Taiwan threaten stability; Beijing rejected it (Reuters). Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Nov 10 China is running unannounced "area denial" drills with the Liaoning group, with more than 100 naval and coast guard ships across the region (Reuters); China has declared no named drill. No blockade or quarantine; no report of the Liaoning heading north toward Japan. Trump-Xi at APEC in Shenzhen next week; Taiwan local elections Nov 28; rare-earth and port-fee pauses run to Jan 10. Inference: pressure, not imminent attack.
Toward catastrophe
Named drill, blockade or quarantine, Liaoning group moves north, clash
Toward resolution
Vessels withdraw, no drills, APEC trade progress
8Nuclear riskELEVATED MIXED
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: No official alert change and no new official nuclear threat. IRGC spokesman Mohebbi (Nov 7) said preparations would be made if Iran changes its nuclear doctrine (watch item, not tripwire (d)); Iran holds 440.9 kg of 60% uranium (IAEA) and Rezaei says none will leave Iran. Trump ruled out nuclear use against Iran (Oct 16). Russia's Oct 28 Bulava test was pre-notified; three of four UK Vanguard boats reported at sea, no MoD statement; New START expired Feb 5.
Toward catastrophe
Official alert change, explicit threats by officials, Iran NPT exit
Toward resolution
UK deployment ends, no further tests, verifiable Iran inspections deal
9Economic and financial stabilityELEVATED WORSE
New since 9:01 am: Nvidia said Nov 12 that Jensen Huang resigned as CEO and director (board accepted Nov 11); CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO (Nvidia, SEC 8-K; CNBC, CNN). Shares fell more than 11% premarket and had already lost over $300 billion in value since last Friday (TechCrunch). Reports tie the exit to an affair with an alleged Chinese intelligence asset; US officials have not confirmed the espionage claims. Nvidia, the largest S&P 500 weight, still reports Nov 17.
Background: Brent about $92 on Nov 12, headed for a weekly loss as OPEC+ output rose (Reuters); tanker rates outside Hormuz are about 50% below last month's peaks (Baltic Exchange). October CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% expected (Nov 10); Fed Governor Waller backs a December hike, about 99% priced; 10-year yield above 5%. Nov 10: S&P -0.4%; Nov 11: S&P 500 +1.29%, Nasdaq +1.60%. Axios says Commerce Secretary Lutnick blocked a crackdown on Nvidia chips diverted to China. Anthropic IPO (ANT): Nasdaq debut targeted Nov 19 or 20 (Reuters, WSJ). Dec 11 funding deadline. Direction WORSE on the week (rate-hike shock, AI leadership shock). No bank stress found.
Toward catastrophe
Market crash, oil above $130, bank stress, shutdown after Dec 11
Toward resolution
Oil eases on a Hormuz deal, orderly correction, VIX below 20, funding deal
10Natural and systemic hazardsGUARDED NO CHANGE
New since 9:01 am: ISO New England Normal at 11:50 am, about 2,700 MW surplus over a 15,390 MW forecast peak (ISO-NE). No NOAA geomagnetic storm watch found (an old "G4 watch for Nov 12" page dates from 2025).
Background: Rain Thursday night through Friday, heavier in southeastern Massachusetts, possible light snow north and west of Boston (Boston 25, NWS); no watches found. NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast: max Kp 3 through Nov 13. No large US power or communications outage reported.
Toward catastrophe
G4 or G5 storm watch, major Northeast storm, major criminal cyberattack
Toward resolution
Quiet space weather, no major storms
11Other flashpointsELEVATED WORSE
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Nov 12: Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles, debris in the Mecca region; Saudi Civil Defense blamed the Houthis (Reuters); an Israeli strike hit Gaza's Nasser Hospital, a surgeon reported killed (BBC). Saudi-Houthi war: missiles at Riyadh intercepted Nov 8, 9 and 10; the East-West pipeline attacked Nov 9, still operating (SPA). Iraq: Nov 8 drone strike on Khor Mor gas field cut power to over 70% of Iraqi Kurdistan. North Korea: fourth launch in about a month (Nov 4, Reuters); Kim Yo Jong rules out talks. Nothing new on Venezuela, India-Pakistan or Israel-Lebanon. Tripwire (i) not met.
Toward catastrophe
New war (Korea, India-Pakistan, Venezuela), strikes on capitals
Toward resolution
Saudi-Houthi truce, talks, de-escalation
12Biological threatsHIGH WORSE
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Ebola (Bundibugyo): WHO PHEIC in force since May 17, 2026. About 10,990 confirmed cases and 5,354 deaths in the DRC as of Nov 10, community spread in eight provinces; Kenya 9 cases and 2 deaths; Nigeria one imported case, evacuated to Switzerland (ECDC, CDC data via Contagion Live). Armed fighters attacked five Ebola facilities in North Kivu from Nov 4, burning three (single outlet, citing Africa CDC). No approved Bundibugyo vaccine. CDC requires all US air arrivals to attest they were not in the DRC in the past 21 days (to Dec 18); no US case; CDC and ECDC rate public risk low. H5N1: first US bird flu death of 2026 in Washington (Nov 1), cases tied to dairy cows, no person-to-person spread (AP). Standing: Florida local dengue outbreak with a CDC Level 3 response. Not tripwire (k).
Toward catastrophe
Ebola case in the US or spread to more countries, person-to-person H5N1 spread, new PHEIC, hospital strain
Toward resolution
DRC cases decline, attacks on clinics stop, no new countries, CDC order lifted
13Supply chain and essentialsELEVATED MIXED
Nothing new since 9:01 am.
Background: Heating oil can top $6 a gallon at times; a typical 200-gallon fill is about 70% above last year (Northeastern, Nov 5); Massachusetts earmarked about $49 million in emergency heating aid. Distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average (week to Oct 30); DOE loaned a third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (Oct 21); heating oil futures near $4.15, lowest since late August (Nov 10). Gasoline $4.10 national average (Nov 5), a 2026 low but about 34% above a year ago (AAA). Drug shortages: 223 active (ASHP, Q1). Cause: Hormuz disruption and limited refining. No rationing, empty shelves or port closures found. Direction MIXED: gas falling, heating fuel high into winter.
Toward catastrophe
Heating oil or diesel outages in New England, rationing, widespread drug or food shortages, port or rail strike
Toward resolution
Hormuz reopens, distillate prices fall, inventories rebuild, shortages list shrinks
1 in progress, 0 imminent or close

Flashpoint watch

Distance is an assessment of how many steps remain before each tripwire. In Progress means the trigger event has already happened.

Renewed US strikes on Iran

IN PROGRESS
DistantIn progress

Under way in limited form (limited strikes on Qeshm air defenses Nov 2 to 3 and Nov 6, no announced campaign); blockade enforcement continues. Reuters (Nov 9) says Trump agreed to pause further strikes after Gulf appeals; he calls new strikes "quite unlikely" while keeping a finalized plan. An Iranian official claims Qeshm was hit again Nov 8 to 9 (unconfirmed); an ADNOC vessel was attacked in UAE waters Nov 10 (no casualties reported, unattributed); the IRGC says the US is luring tankers "into walls of fire"; Rubio says Nov 11 there is "no need for major combat operations"; a record 37 attacks on ships in October and at least 10 ships hit Nov 1 to 10; UKMTO logged another tanker hit near Lima, Oman on Nov 10; Brent back near $93. Nov 10 to 11: Iran attacked navigation systems on Oman's Didamar island (Reuters, three sources); UKMTO received another tanker incident report; four crew injured on MT Fujairah Energy; the IMO counts 133 incidents and at least 25 seafarers killed since February; oil has reached Oman's shore (Reuters). No new US strike reported. Nov 12: the IRGC claims two supertankers disabled and the army two more on mines (unconfirmed); a ship was hit off Ras Al-Khaimah (Ambrey, single source); Iran rejected moving its uranium abroad; Trump said "We don't need a deal with Iran" and pulled Vance off the talks (Reuters). Nov 11 evening: Israel's security cabinet reportedly ordered the military to step up preparations for a possible attack (KAN); the cabinet meets Sunday. Stays In Progress until about Nov 13 absent new confirmed strikes, or sooner if a deal is confirmed; an Israeli strike would restart the clock.

Escalates if: an announced US or Israeli strike campaign, or strikes on mainland nuclear, military, energy or leadership targets

Iranian retaliation on US soil or infrastructure

NEAR
DistantIn progress

New: a specific Iranian threat put two US-used UK bases at FPCON Charlie and moved aircraft out of Mildenhall (Reuters/WSJ, Bloomberg); this is allied soil, not US soil. France blamed the IRGC for refrigeration sabotage at 700 supermarkets; US agencies warned of the same attacks on US cold-chain systems; Pentagon commissary probe unconfirmed. New: DOJ charged three alleged Iran-backed operatives, including over an attempted Manhattan synagogue bombing in March to April 2026 (allegation; plot predates this week). Treasury Secretary Bessent moved onto a military base over Iranian threats (NYT, Treasury). No attack causing casualties or major damage on US soil.

Trips if: attack, disruptive cyber outage or foiled plot in the US, or official US attribution of the commissary failures to Iran

Contested US election and unrest

NEAR
DistantIn progress

Democrats won both chambers by projection. Trump questioned on Nov 9 whether the election was "honest"; no official rejection, legal action or certification challenge yet. House GOP picked Jim Jordan as leader; the Hegseth impeachment was shelved by vote. Mississippi settled: Hyde-Smith conceded to Colom (Nov 11 to 12). Alaska (count Nov 18) remains open; a judge denied Peltola's request for a rejected-ballot list. The White House Counsel warned incoming Oversight Democrats of "criminality" (NYT).

Trips if: results rejected, certification blocked, unrest over close races

Russia strikes a NATO member

NEAR
DistantIn progress

Russian drones keep hitting ships near Romanian and Bulgarian waters; Bulgaria destroyed a decoy drone in its waters (Nov 8). Hoax bomb threats against European flights, unattributed. No strike on NATO land. Abu Dhabi ended Nov 11 with no agreement announced; envoys may visit Moscow and Kyiv; a large prisoner swap was agreed. New: drones from Russia or Belarus triggered Baltic shelter alerts overnight and a NATO missile was fired over Lithuania; no strike on NATO soil, origin disputed. Nov 12: Witkoff and Kushner in Russia to brief Putin; mass bomb threats against Italian and UK schools, unattributed.

Trips if: strike on NATO soil or Article 4/5 consultations

Constitutional crisis: executive defies Congress or courts

NEAR
DistantIn progress

The White House has prepared to govern by executive action (Reuters); Miller is chief of staff; the AG entertains prosecuting Democrats; the House shelved the Hegseth impeachment 211-204 (Nov 10); a fourth DOJ official resigned in a week. The administration complied with its Nov 2 Supreme Court loss. No defiance found.

Trips if: open refusal to comply with a final court order, or spending money Congress did not appropriate after courts or GAO rule against it

Chinese move on Taiwan

NEAR
DistantIn progress

Raised from Distant: Taiwan's Defense Minister says China is running unannounced "area denial" drills with the Liaoning group; over 100 Chinese ships reported across the region and a large rise in aircraft last week (Reuters). No named drill, blockade or quarantine; no report of the Liaoning heading north. New Nov 12: Xi said reunification "will certainly be realised" and Taiwan reported a 29-aircraft "joint combat readiness patrol" with warships (Al Jazeera); G7 ministers warned on China's actions east of Taiwan. US Army planning assumes a move is possible as early as 2027.

Trips if: named drill around Taiwan, quarantine or blockade, Liaoning group heads north toward Japan, clash

Pandemic or major biological event

NEAR
DistantIn progress

Raised from Distant after the gap check: an Ebola PHEIC has been in force since May 17; about 10,990 cases and 5,354 deaths in the DRC, spread to Kenya and Nigeria, cases evacuated to Europe, and Ebola clinics burned in North Kivu. No US case; H5N1 human cases in Washington tied to cows, no person-to-person spread.

Trips if: a new WHO PHEIC, or a novel pathogen (including H5N1 or Ebola) spreads person to person inside the US

Multi-state US grid or communications outage

DISTANT
DistantIn progress

No adversary-caused outage reported; New England grid Normal; no G4 or G5 watch; possible New England coastal storm Fri to Sat (rain, interior wet snow, no watches).

Trips if: cyber or physical attack on the grid, G4 to G5 storm

Nuclear alert change or use

DISTANT
DistantIn progress

No official threats or alert changes. Iran's talk of a doctrine review is a watch item, not a threat.

Trips if: official alert change or explicit threats by officials

Nationwide satellite, GPS, cable or cloud outage

DISTANT
DistantIn progress

New flashpoint. No US GPS or satellite disruption, multi-cable cut or long cloud outage found; Russian satellite GPS jamming affects Europe.

Trips if: nationwide GPS or satellite disruption, multiple transatlantic or transpacific cables cut, or a 12-hour-plus outage that disrupts payments, hospitals or 911 nationally

Statements, social media and early warnings

Signals

Official statements and warnings

What governments and agencies said since the last report. Statements are reported as said; meaning is inference.

White House and President

  • NEWNov 12, Trump (social media): "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed... we've got their Strait!"; Vice President Vance to give "his complete and total attention" to crime and corruption in Democratic-run cities; "CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership's blood!" (Reuters via Yahoo).
  • Nov 11 to 12, White House Counsel Will Scharf (letter to incoming Oversight chair Robert Garcia): aggressive oversight "may cross the line into blatant criminality"; Garcia dismissed it (NYT via Just Security).
  • Nov 11 (reported), Vice President Vance: weighing direct talks with SNSC secretary Rezaei; Trump privately calls the June MOU with Iran a mistake; Rubio and Miller back keeping the blockade (WSJ via Times of Israel).
  • Nov 9, Trump (White House, after meeting Qatar's PM): "Iran militarily is effectively over"; "locked and loaded"; another carrier "loaded up to the gills" (AP); Reuters reports he agreed to pause further strikes (Reuters).
  • Nov 10, Trump (Truth Social, per ABC): Democrats "FAILED" to impeach Hegseth (ABC).
  • Nov 9, Trump (Truth Social): "Does anybody really believe that this 'Election' was honest" (CNBC).
  • Nov 8 (aired), Trump: countries the US "protected" will "pay us any and all costs" of the war (Al Jazeera).
Assessment: dropping the deal track does not by itself mean new strikes; it signals reliance on the blockade ("we've got their Strait") rather than talks, which leaves Hormuz contested longer. The "corruption" posts are rhetoric until followed by orders or prosecutions.

US agencies

  • Nov 11, US Central Command: forces "continue to work around the clock" to keep Hormuz open and enforce the "ironclad" naval blockade (Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 11 (reported), Treasury Department report: Iran's rial has lost about a quarter of its value since August; annual inflation reached 90% last month; Iran has loaded no tankers since late August (IBTimes).
  • Nov 11, Secretary of State Rubio: rejected Iran's demand for war reparations; no deal announced (Gulf News). Nov 10: no need for "major combat operation" because economic pressure is working; Iran's conditions "absurd" (TNND).
  • Nov 10 to 11, Treasury Department: Secretary Bessent has left his home and will not "be deterred by the Iranian regime's threats"; NYT says he moved onto a military base (NewsNation (NYT)).
  • Nov 10, Justice Department (SDNY), AG Blanche, FBI Director Patel: three alleged Iran-backed operatives indicted over about 18 attacks in Europe, an attempted Manhattan synagogue bombing and the RAF Fairford plot; "not hypothetical" (DOJ).
  • Nov 11, US envoy Kushner (Abu Dhabi): "We are encouraged by the constructive discussions today" (Kyiv Post).
  • Nov 9 to 10, US Air Force and a US official: RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath at FPCON Charlie after an Iranian threat (Reuters via Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 10, Fed Governor Waller: hike at least 25 basis points in December (Reuters via Yahoo).
Assessment: Washington is betting on the blockade, not strikes; the protective moves for officials and UK bases show it takes Iranian retaliation seriously.

Foreign governments and agencies

  • NEWNov 12, Iran's armed forces: four tankers caught fire, two supertankers after a "violent explosion" on a prohibited southern route (IRGC Navy) and two east of the strait after "hitting a naval mine" (army) (AFP via Arab News).
  • NEWNov 12, Kremlin meeting with Witkoff and Kushner: per Russian state media, Witkoff said a new three-way round is agreed with Europeans joining; Russian negotiator Medinsky: no reason to meet Europeans; a General Staff official: swap of more than 1,000 per side in 2 to 3 weeks (HNGN, Bloomberg).
  • Nov 12, Chinese President Xi Jinping: "The complete reunification of the motherland must be realised, and it will certainly be realised"; Taiwan's defense ministry: 29 aircraft on a "joint combat readiness patrol"; Mainland Affairs Council: wording "isn't much different from the past" (Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 11 to 12, G7 foreign ministers: China's assertive actions east of Taiwan threaten regional stability; China's Foreign Ministry rejected the statement (Reuters via Just Security).
  • Nov 12, Iran (Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, to Al Jazeera): Washington must "make and announce" a decision on Iran's latest proposal; Tehran rejected moving its 60% uranium to a third country; IRGC chief Vahidi: missile work continues (Al Jazeera live).
  • Nov 11 to 12, IRGC Navy: two supertankers disabled after ignoring warnings on an "unauthorized route"; ships cooperating with the US "will meet a similar fate" (Reuters via Business Standard).
  • Nov 12, Saudi Civil Defense: debris from two intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles fell in the Mecca region (Reuters via Just Security).
  • Nov 10 to 11, Iranian officials (via Al Jazeera): the Hormuz reopening timeline could be cut from seven days to two; Qatar's foreign ministry says Doha is "working tirelessly" on mediation (Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 11 evening, Israel's security cabinet (per KAN): ordered the military to step up preparations for a possible attack on Iran; to meet Sunday. Netanyahu's office called Eisenkot's request to hold off "an irresponsible move" (Anadolu via A News, Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 11 to 12, Iran SNSC secretary Rezaei (social media): if the US starts another war, every base involved "from West Asia to Europe" is a legitimate target; Speaker Ghalibaf: Hormuz will "never return" to its pre-war status, "the ball is now in the American court" (Al Jazeera).
  • Nov 12, Ukrainian Air Force: 123 drones plus ballistic and Zircon missiles overnight; 94 drones downed (UNN).
  • Nov 11, International Maritime Organization (via Reuters): 133 confirmed incidents in the region since late February, most of them attacks; at least 25 seafarers killed. Oman's government did not respond to Reuters on oil reaching its shore (Reuters via GV Wire).
  • Nov 10 to 11, IRGC (state media): destroyed "enemy navigation systems" on Oman's Didamar island; three sources told Reuters Iran attacked the systems; damage unconfirmed; Oman's media ministry did not immediately comment (Reuters via Arab News).
  • Nov 11, Iran's army navy: a "violating" tanker hit mines and caught fire east of the strait; safe passage "requires coordination" with Iranian forces; armed forces chief Abdollahi warned the US and Israel against "new miscalculations" (Xinhua via IANS, dpa).
  • Nov 11, India's Ports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal: four crew injured on the Liberia-flagged MT Fujairah Energy, struck Nov 10 (Gulf News).
  • Nov 11, Iran President Pezeshkian (X): accused Washington of pursuing diplomacy through threats; FM Araghchi condemned a US reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear program (Gulf News).
  • Nov 11, Iran SNSC secretary Rezaei: talk reports "a pure lie"; Hormuz stays shut until Iran's conditions are met; new US attacks would bring "targeting U.S. bases far away" (Al Jazeera, Reuters via Just Security).
  • Nov 11, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia: overnight shelter alerts over drones from Russia or Belarus, lifted hours later; Finland restricted the eastern Gulf of Finland (Reuters via Cyprus Mail).
Assessment: Xi's line is standard wording but paired with a combat patrol a week before APEC; on Iran, the main new risk is Israel, not Washington. A caretaker Israeli government readying a strike while the US pauses could restart the war without a US decision; Iran's threats now name bases in Europe too.

Social media watch

Leads only. Nothing here changes a rating unless confirmed by an official source or two major outlets.

NEWUNVERIFIEDIranian armed forces via state media, Nov 12
Claim: four tankers on fire in and east of Hormuz (two from a "violent explosion", two from mines). Confirmed: AFP reports the claim. Not confirmed: ship names, cause, casualties; the US military says mines were cleared.
UNVERIFIEDIRGC Navy via Iranian state media and video, Nov 11 to 12
Claim: two supertankers carrying over 4 million barrels were disabled by mine explosions Wednesday night on an "unauthorized route". Confirmed: Reuters reports the claim and that other tankers are still burning. Not confirmed: the ships' names, mines as the cause, or casualties.
UNVERIFIEDIRGC and Iranian army channels via state media (Tasnim, IRNA), Nov 11
Claim: two tankers hit mines overnight on an unapproved route "escorted by US fighter jets", and a third "violating" tanker caught fire east of the strait. Confirmed: UKMTO received a tanker incident report in the strait Nov 11 (crew condition unknown). Not confirmed: mines, the number of ships, or any US escort.
CONFIRMEDIran SNSC secretary Rezaei, official social media post, Nov 11 to 12
Post: every military base involved in a new US war, "from West Asia to Europe", would be a legitimate target. Confirmed as his statement by Al Jazeera. Not confirmed: any specific plan or target list.
CONFIRMEDBaltic government alerts and Finnish Defence Forces posts, Nov 11
Shelter alerts in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and Finland's Gulf of Finland restrictions: confirmed by Reuters and LRT. Not confirmed: who launched the drones.
CONFIRMEDTrump official account (Truth Social), Nov 9 to 10
Posts calling Iran strikes "quite unlikely" (AFP, Axios) and saying Democrats "FAILED" to impeach Hegseth (ABC). Not confirmed: any agreed Iran terms.
DEBUNKEDTabloid and viral "Trump to nuke Iran" posts (standing)
No official basis: Trump ruled out nuclear use against Iran (Oct 16); no alert change. No viral claims found this run of US outages, evacuations, "doomsday" plane activity or billionaire departures.

Early warning indicators

Indirect signs that often appear before official news.

Moving

  • NEWIran diplomacy: Trump says "We don't need a deal with Iran" and pulls Vance off the talks (Reuters, Nov 12)
  • NEWHormuz: Iran says four tankers on fire Nov 12 (unverified)
  • NEWMarkets: Nvidia CEO resigned; shares down more than 11% premarket (Nvidia, TechCrunch)
  • Taiwan: Xi says reunification "will certainly be realised"; 29 Chinese aircraft on a "joint combat readiness patrol" with warships (Nov 12)
  • Gulf shipping: vessel hit by an unknown projectile 14 nm off Ras Al-Khaimah (Ambrey, Nov 12); IRGC claims two supertankers disabled (unconfirmed)
  • Europe: bomb threats to about 6,300 Italian and 700-plus UK schools (BBC, Reuters), no real danger found
  • Israel: security cabinet reportedly ordered stepped-up preparation for a possible Iran attack (KAN, Nov 11 evening); cabinet meets Sunday
  • Kyiv: ballistic missile and drone attack overnight into Nov 12, hours after the Abu Dhabi talks; 1 killed, 5 injured
  • Hormuz widening: Iran attacked navigation systems on Oman's Didamar island (Reuters); new UKMTO tanker incident Nov 11; four crew injured on MT Fujairah Energy (India's Ports Minister)
  • Airlines: Etihad cancelled Riyadh and Dammam flights through Nov 19; Emirates, flydubai, Air Arabia cut some Saudi services Nov 11
  • Baltic shelter alerts: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia told residents to take shelter from drones overnight Nov 10 to 11; NATO jets scrambled; Finland restricted the eastern Gulf of Finland (Reuters, LRT)
  • US officials protected: Treasury Secretary Bessent moved onto a military base over Iranian threats (NYT, Treasury)
Earlier signals (16)
  • China: unannounced "area denial" drills with the Liaoning group, 100+ ships across the region (Taiwan MND, Reuters, Nov 10)
  • Heating oil: can top $6 a gallon at times, fills about 70% above last year; Massachusetts emergency heating aid (Nov 5)
  • Ebola: PHEIC in force since May; DRC near 11,000 cases, spread to Kenya and Nigeria; three Ebola clinics burned in North Kivu (Nov 4 to 8); CDC attestation order for all US air arrivals
  • Gulf shipping: ADNOC vessel damaged in an attack inside UAE waters (WAM, Nov 10)
  • Iran-backed plots: DOJ indictment (Nov 10) over 18 attacks in Europe, an attempted Manhattan synagogue bombing and the Fairford plot
  • Hormuz: a record 37 attacks on ships in October and at least 10 ships hit Nov 1 to 10 (Reuters, Washington Institute); IMO counts 133 incidents and 25-plus seafarers killed since February; oil reaching Oman's shore; UKMTO counted 11 attacks and 3 sinkings Nov 1 to 8; IRGC claims more mine hits (unconfirmed); traffic about 65% below pre-war
  • Iran: Trump calls the war "militarily effectively over" and reportedly paused strikes; Araghchi insists on Iran's conditions; blockade and Iron Gate continue
  • US force protection: tankers moved out of RAF Mildenhall; Mildenhall and Lakenheath at FPCON Charlie over an Iranian threat (Nov 9 to 10)
  • Russia: five major Ukrainian substations hit as Abu Dhabi talks opened, six more power facilities overnight Nov 10 to 11; talks ended without announced agreement
  • France blames the IRGC for supermarket refrigeration sabotage; US cold-chain advisory (Nov 5); Pentagon commissary probe (unconfirmed)
  • Trump questions whether the midterms were "honest" (no legal action yet); Hegseth impeachment shelved 211-204
  • Saudi-Houthi: missiles at Riyadh intercepted Nov 8, 9 and 10 (shelter alerts, schools online); East-West pipeline attacked Nov 9; Saudi strikes on Sanaa
  • US Missions UAE and Saudi Arabia attack-threat alerts (Nov 7); Gulf airline suspensions to Nov 16 to 25
  • Europe: dozens of hoax bomb threats against flights since Nov 3, fighter escorts (Reuters)
  • Markets: hot October CPI; Waller backs a December hike, about 99% priced; 10-year back above 5%; S&P -0.4%, Nvidia -5.5% Nov 10, then S&P 500 closed +1.29% and Nasdaq +1.60% Nov 11; Brent about $92.40
  • North Korea: fourth missile launch in about a month (Nov 4); new air-defense and cruise missile tests

Quiet (none found)

  • US military leave cancellations or reserve mobilization
  • Emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (the Oct 21 Northeast heating oil reserve loan is separate and not new)
  • Emergency session of Congress or continuity-of-government moves
  • US airspace closures or domestic flight groundings
  • Unusual "doomsday" plane activity (no tracker data found)
  • US internet blackouts or GPS jamming reports
  • Open defiance of court orders or appropriations
  • Billionaire flight watch: AEWS dashboard not readable this run (1:01 pm Nov 12; title and animation link only); Final Vector shows six "Awaiting Signal..." entries behind an access request, with no visible Orange alert. No news of an AEWS level 4 or 5 and no reported surge to safe havens. No data found, not all clear. Trackers: AEWS, Billionaire Jet Tracker.
Iran, China, Russia and the US grid

Adversary threats and the power grid

Threat levels are assessments. "Reported" lines are from news and official sources; "Assessment" lines are inference.

Iran

HIGH
REPORTED

New Nov 12: Iran's armed forces say four tankers are on fire (unconfirmed); Trump said "We don't need a deal with Iran" and pulled Vance off the talks (Reuters); Iran rejected moving its uranium abroad. Rezaei says any base used in a new US war, "from West Asia to Europe", is a target (Nov 11 to 12); Israel is reportedly preparing for a possible strike on Iran (KAN). Nov 10 to 11: Iran attacked navigation systems on Oman's Didamar island (Reuters, three sources) and Iranian forces claim more tanker mine strikes; four crew were injured on MT Fujairah Energy (India's Ports Minister). Treasury Secretary Bessent moved onto a military base over Iranian plotting (NYT, Treasury). DOJ (Nov 10) charged three alleged Iran-backed operatives over 18 attacks in Europe, an attempted Manhattan synagogue bombing and the RAF Fairford plot. A specific Iranian threat put RAF Mildenhall and Lakenheath at FPCON Charlie. CISA and FBI (AA26-097A, Nov 5 cold-chain advisory) warn Iran-linked hackers tamper with US water, energy and refrigeration controllers.

ASSESSMENT

With US strikes paused and the blockade biting, Iran is escalating where it is cheapest: shipping, a neighbor's territory, plots against officials and bases, and controller sabotage. The homeland risk is real but still below an attack.

China

ELEVATED
REPORTED

New Nov 12: Xi said Taiwan "reunification" will "certainly be realised" as Taiwan reported a 29-aircraft "joint combat readiness patrol" with warships; G7 ministers warned about China's actions east of Taiwan. Taiwan's Defense Minister says China is running unannounced "area denial" drills in the Western Pacific with the Liaoning group, with more than 100 Chinese ships across the region (Reuters, Nov 10). Volt Typhoon hackers are pre-positioned in US utilities; in 2023 the FBI found them inside the Littleton, MA electric and water utility, about 11 miles from Sudbury. Rare-earth and port-fee pauses run to Jan 10; Trump meets Xi at APEC next week.

ASSESSMENT

Rhetoric plus a combat patrol a week before APEC reads as pressure on Trump and Taiwan's Nov 28 voters. Area-denial drills rehearse keeping US forces out of a Taiwan fight; still pressure, not attack. China's grid access would most likely be used only in a Taiwan crisis.

Russia

ELEVATED
REPORTED

Nov 12: Witkoff and Kushner arrived in Russia to brief Putin; the EU plans new sanctions Monday. Hours after the talks ended, Russia fired ballistic and Zircon missiles and 123 drones at Ukraine overnight into Nov 12; 1 killed and 5 injured in Kyiv. Russia hit Ukraine's grid during the Abu Dhabi talks (five substations Nov 10, six power facilities overnight Nov 10 to 11); talks produced an agreed prisoner swap but no truce. Drones from Russia or Belarus triggered Baltic shelter alerts overnight Nov 10 to 11. A US soldier in the UK was arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia (BBC). Russian drones have hit at least 12 merchant ships in the Black Sea since October. Russian hackers caused blackouts in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016.

ASSESSMENT

Russia keeps grid pressure on Ukraine as leverage; the physical threat is to Europe, not the US homeland.

US power grid

ELEVATED
REPORTED

No adversary-caused US outage reported. Known risks: Iranian controller tampering (AA26-097A), Chinese pre-positioned access (Volt Typhoon), physical substation attacks (2022 Moore County, NC: about 45,000 customers lost power). Pentagon FORTRESS has major bases preparing to run 90 days off the civilian grid. The Pentagon is probing possible cyber tampering with commissary refrigeration at six or more bases (unconfirmed). New England grid Normal (9:03 am Nov 12).

ASSESSMENT

A long, wide-area outage remains unlikely. The cyber route is the one to watch. The family plan assumes it could happen.

Sudbury, MA and New England

Local: Sudbury and New England

ISO New England gridNormal, no Power Caution, Watch or Warning (snapshot 11:50 am Nov 12; about 2,700 MW surplus)
Space weatherNOAA SWPC forecast (issued 12:30 UTC Nov 11): max Kp 3 through Nov 13; field quiet to unsettled Nov 11; no G4 or G5 watch found
Eversource outages (Sudbury area)No significant outage reported in news searches; live outage map not checked
NWS Boston and local forecasts (no watches or warnings found Nov 12)Rain moves in Thursday night through Friday, heavier in southeastern Massachusetts, gusty on the coast, possible light snow north and west of Boston (Boston 25). Earlier NWS outlook: No watches or warnings for Massachusetts land zones; prolonged rain Thursday to Saturday as a low passes south of New England; possible change to snow Thursday night in the Berkshires and Worcester Hills, minor accumulation at the highest elevations only; gusts to about 30 kt Thursday to Friday night; dry and cool Monday to Tuesday
Heating oil (New England)Can top $6 a gallon at times; a typical fill costs about 70% more than last year; Gov. Healey earmarked about $49 million for emergency heating aid (Northeastern, Nov 5). Futures eased to about $4.15, lowest since late August (Nov 10); East Coast distillate stocks remain well below average; DOE loaned a third of the Northeast reserve (Oct 21). No supply outage reported.
MEMA alerts, water advisoriesNone found in searches this run
Household action level (PRE-CRISIS): Top off fuel, fill water containers, finish 90-day stocks, test generator and radios. Category 12 is High: keep masks, gloves and disinfectant stocked, and limit crowds.
Possibilities, not forecasts

Scenarios

Worst Case (next 2 to 4 weeks)

With Trump now saying the US does not need a deal, talks stall; Israel's caretaker government, whose security cabinet has reportedly ordered stepped-up preparations, strikes Iran after its Sunday meeting, or Iran's widening tanker campaign (four tankers claimed on fire Nov 12, a ship hit off Ras Al-Khaimah) kills crew or hits a Gulf energy plant. The US is pulled back in, ending its strike pause with the reportedly finalized three-day CENTCOM campaign, and Iran fires at US bases in the Gulf or Europe, as Rezaei has threatened. Brent jumps from about $92 toward $100 to $110, pushing New England heating oil, already about 70% above last year with distillate stocks 13% below normal, higher as winter starts: painful prices, not empty tanks.
Triggers to watch: the outcome of Israel's Sunday security cabinet meeting or an Israeli strike; a tanker attack with deaths or a hit on a Gulf energy facility; a White House or CENTCOM announcement of new strikes; Iranian fire at US bases; Brent above $100.
Why it's plausible: the President has publicly dropped the deal track; Israel's cabinet has reportedly ordered strike preparations (KAN); the IMO counts 133 incidents and at least 25 seafarers killed since February; at least 10 ships were hit Nov 1 to 10; Iran struck navigation systems on Omani soil this week; strike plans are reportedly ready; and Rezaei has threatened US bases if Iran is attacked.

Best Case (next 2 to 4 weeks)

The US strike pause holds, Washington restrains Israel, and Qatari mediation, which Doha says has "at least two weeks", produces an interim arrangement that lets some tankers through Hormuz, so attacks at sea fall off and the Iran flashpoint drops out of In Progress. Trump and Xi extend the trade truce at APEC in Shenzhen and China winds down its Western Pacific drills. The 1,000-plus prisoner swap is carried out and the next three-way round is held.
Triggers to watch: Israel's Sunday cabinet ending without a strike decision; Trump reversing his "no deal needed" line or a confirmed US-Iran meeting; a week with no UKMTO attack reports; an announced Hormuz passage arrangement; a joint US-China statement at APEC; the swap taking place.
Why it's harder: Trump said Nov 12 the US does not need a deal and pulled Vance off the talks; Iran rejected moving its uranium abroad on Nov 12, Xi paired a reunification pledge with a combat patrol, Israel is reportedly preparing to strike, Russia hit Kyiv within hours of the talks ending, Iran denies talks and says Hormuz stays shut until its conditions are met, attacks widened this week to Omani soil, China is drilling unannounced days before APEC, and nothing is signed.

Neither scenario is a forecast; the likely outcome is somewhere in between.

About this page

Created by AI. This report is generated by AI running as an automated task every 4 hours. No person reviews it before it is published.
How it works. Each run, the AI searches recent news and official government sources across 13 risk categories, then does a second "gap check" sweep for anything it missed. It rates each category on severity (Normal, Guarded, Elevated, High, Severe) and direction since the last report (Worse, Improved, Mixed, No change). A rating changes only when an official source or two independent major news outlets support it. Social media is treated as unverified leads and never changes a rating by itself. The flashpoint gauge (0 to 100) converts the 13 severity ratings into one score and adds 10 points for each "tripwire" event in the past 7 days, such as renewed strikes on Iran or a major US grid outage. Flashpoint distances, threat levels and the worst and best case scenarios are the AI's assessments, not forecasts.
Limits. AI can misread, miss or mis-date news, and sources can be wrong. Check the linked sources before acting on anything here. This is not official guidance; in an emergency, follow instructions from local authorities.

Sources and method

Gauge = round(100 x sum of category severity points (Normal 0, Guarded 1, Elevated 2, High 3, Severe 4) / 52, the maximum for 13 categories) + 10 per tripwire met, capped at 100. This run (9:01 am Nov 12): round(100 x 30/52) = 58, + 10 for tripwire (b) = 68. Tripwires (a) to (l); (k) WHO PHEIC or person-to-person spread of a novel pathogen in the US and (l) a nationwide GPS, satellite, cable or cloud outage were added Nov 10.

Flashpoint scale, highest first: IN PROGRESS (trigger event has happened in the past 7 days and is ongoing), IMMINENT (could happen within days), CLOSE, NEAR, DISTANT.

Sources (159 links)

Severity, direction, distances, threat levels and scenarios are assessments based on recent reporting. Social media items are unverified unless marked confirmed.